Consumer sentiment increased by 2.5 points in November

Heading into the election, consumer sentiment improved for the fourth consecutive month, rising 3.5% to its highest reading in six months according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers release.

While current conditions were little changed, the expectations index surged across all dimensions, reaching its highest reading since July 2021.

Expectations for personal finances climbed 6% in part due to strengthening income prospects, and short-run business conditions soared by 9% in November.

Long-run business conditions increased to its most favorable reading in nearly four years. Sentiment is now nearly 50% above its June 2022 trough but remains below pre-pandemic readings.

Note that interviews for this release concluded on Monday and thus do not capture any reactions to US election results. Year-ahead inflation expectations fell slightly from 2.7% last month to 2.6% this month.

The current reading is the lowest since December 2020 and sits within the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.

Long-run inflation expectations inched up from 3.0% last month to 3.1% this month, remaining modestly elevated relative to the range of readings seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

Preliminary results show consumer sentiment increased 2.5 points in November to 73.0, up 8.7 points from one year ago.

The Current Economic Conditions Index fell 0.5 points from the previous month to 64.4, 3.9 points lower than year-ago levels.

The Consumer Expectations Index grew 4.4 points to 78.5, 21.7 points higher than the November 2023 Index.