That’s the best estimate of investment banker and community bank investor Joshua Siegel, who said at ABA’s National Conference for Community Bankers that the $90 billion is broken out this way:

Chargeoffs. $28 billion, due to additional loan chargeoffs. While Siegel believes the community banking sector is making a turnaround, some banks still have to clean up, and it will come at a price.

Acquisitions. $43 billion, for healthy banks to acquire CAMELS 3,4, and 5 banks that don’t have an independent future.

ALLL buildup. $12 billion, for permanent increases to loan loss reserves. While some banks have trimmed their allowances, many community banks still have to bulk up theirs.

Organic asset growth. $7 billion, for new lending. “There are some community banks that are still growing,” said Siegel.

Managing principal at Stone-Castle Partners LLC, Siegel is a believer in community banking’s future. His firm manages $3.5 billion-plus in client assets invested in community banks, and has made $2 billion-plus in direct bank capital investments.

The firm stopped making new community bank investments in 2007, as analysts detected lending philosophy changes. As community banking’s condition improves, it may be active again.