French Bank Posts Positive Forecast for Global Economy

BNP Paribas projected a positive forecast for 2019 despite worries by the experts that the global economy is ready for some rougher days ahead. Five things we can learn from the report. 

1. The world’s 8^th largest bank projects that the U.S. GDP growth will be 1.8%.
2. The two biggest growth will come from India at 7.6% and China at 6.4%.
3. As the global economy slows in the second half of 2019, BNP Paribas expects that oil prices will not continue to rise, and inflation will be kept in check.

BNP predicts “some scope for inflation to rise in the near term, reflecting reduced spare capacity. The upcoming growth slowdown, however, is likely to prevent a sustained price shock.”

If investors have something to be cautious about, it may be that this report sounds a lot like Alan Greenspan’s “soft landing” during the optimistic years of the late nineties and 2000.   Given this week’s pessimistic analysis on whether the U.S. can withstand another banking crisis, optimism should be tempered with crisis management for U.S. banks.